UK industry at a crossroads, warns BGC
Trade body's AGM reveals uncomfortable truths; Flutter on prediction markets, results roundup & Co
Hello, on Gaming&Co today:
Existential threats: Betting & Gaming Council AGM spotlights black market, tax increases and restrictive regulations
Fightback: Flutter plays down prediction markets threat
Results: Better Collective, Cirsa, Codere Online, PENN Entertainment
NIBS: Partouche, Ontario
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UK industry is “at a crossroads”, says Betting & Gaming Council CEO
Grainne Hurst warns against size of black market and urges lawmakers to listen to industry
Went down to the crossroads: The rise of the illegal gambling market, tax hikes and restrictive regulations introduced in the past few years have combined to place the UK’s regulated gaming and betting industry “at a crossroads” in 2026, Grainne Hurst, CEO of the Betting and Gaming Council, told attendees of the trade group’s annual general meeting in London yesterday. The BGC boss added that the future health of UK operators will be determined by measures that will be taken by UK lawmakers.
Thanks minister: Still, Gambling Minister Baroness Twycross opened the event by acknowledging that the rise in remote gaming duty from 21% to 40% introduced as part of the UK budget in November was “particularly challenging for online operators, we know it will impact your business and staff”.
500 million reasons: The fight against the black market targeting UK punters was the headline theme of the event, but commenting on the RGD increase, Hurst said she found it “incredulous” that the UK government admitted that the tax hikes would “drive another £500m to the black market, but that it was a price worth paying” to recoup an extra £1bn in tax revenues.
Devil’s in the detail: The £500m figure was buried in the detail of the government’s own estimates, Hurst said, and said the measures put the industry “at a crossroads” in 2026. Since the establishment of the BGC in 2019, “we have seen affordability checks, (deposit and spend) limits, but at the same time the black market has experienced huge growth. That is not good for the industry or consumers.”
Go high: The BGC doesn’t want “lower (operational or regulatory) standards, it wants effective regulations”, she added. “Whatever one’s views on gambling, we can all agree that we want customers to use regulated sites and that we should take the time to understand if new regulations are confusing consumers, causing friction where it doesn’t need to or making the regulated market less attractive, therefore making the black market more attractive.”
To reinforce its argument, the BGC commissioned a survey from public affairs firm Anacta that showed 52% of UK bettors believe higher taxes will make punters more likely to use unlicensed sites. Some 66% of those who bet say tax increases will make betting and gaming less enjoyable, the poll showed, while 57% think UK gambling is already heavily regulated.
Black market leap: Chris Sanger, Global Government Tax Leader at EY, said the illegal market had gone from representing 0.5% of the legal market a few years ago, but in 2026 it was worth 10-12% of a UK regulated market that recorded online GGY of £7.8bn in the 12 months to March 2025.
Losing my sponsor: Other speakers added that the impact of the tax rises will be job losses and less funding and sponsorship of UK sports events. Simon Zinger, General Counsel and Chief Customer Care Officer at Entain, confirmed this when he said the UK group decided to stop sponsoring the Cheltenham Coral Cup as a response to the tax hikes.
Advertising works
Social media and Google are rife with adverts for illegal operators and Tim Miller, Executive Director at the Gambling Commission, said Meta had “committed to working on illegal advertising” following his call out of the firm during ICE.
Crypto bros on FCA menu: Miller added that crypto-gambling was a pervasive theme in the illegal gambling debate, as a result UKGC was exploring how to implement crypto-currency payment options for UK consumers by bringing crypto assets under the supervision of the UK Financial Conduct Authority. He added that the timeline was yet to be determined but any implementation would not be before October 2027.
Hurst said politicians and lawmakers need to understand the size and scale of the black market and concluded proceedings by calling on the authorities to disrupt black markets “facilitators such as advertising, payments and suppliers” and increasing “enforcement as a deterrent”.
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Flutter misses target but plays down prediction threat
Shares slide but FanDuel parent insists “no evidence” of meaningful impact from PMs
Two sides to every story: Flutter used its FY25 results announcement last night to fight back against the narrative that prediction markets are a material threat to its future growth. The global giant delivered $16.38bn in group revenue in 2025, up 17% YoY, while average monthly players rose 14% to 15.9 million and adj. EBITDA increased by 21% to $2.85bn.
Not impressed: Despite the decent numbers, on the face of it, investors - spooked by the rise of groups like Kalshi and Polymarket - were unimpressed with Flutter missing its revenue target of $16.7bn and shares, down 43% since the start of last year, slid a further 9% in the hours after trading.
Low impact: In its announcement, Flutter insisted its internal analysis found no “evidence of any meaningful impact” of cannibalisation from prediction markets. “Based on this robust analysis, we estimate the potential handle growth impact to be in the low single digits percentage points and we are confident that the prediction markets have not been a significant driver of the moderating customer and handle trends we have observed,” the FanDuel owner said.
Indeed, Flutter said PMs represent a “significant incremental growth opportunity for FanDuel”. “We believe the emergence of prediction markets will accelerate the path to state regulation of online sports betting and iGaming,” it added.
More to offer: CEO Peter Jackson stressed the point in an interview with CNBC, revealing that the recent introduction of sports setting in Missouri was one of the strongest state launches the operator has had to date. “When customers are given the choice, they’ll take the regulated sports betting,” he said, pointing to the wider range of bets on offer compared to prediction market platforms.
Better Collective delivers best Q4 after “resilient” 2025
Regulatory headwinds lead to revenue drop but “cost discipline” drove EBITDA growth
Lean into the winds: Better Collective’s CEO Jesper Søgaard hailed “the resilience” of its “diversified business” after it delivered on FY guidance despite “significant external headwinds”. While the group saw 2025 revenue drop 9% YoY to €337m and EBITDA down 10% to €102m, this landed within the guidance of €320m-€350m and €100m-€120m respectively, while Q4 saw Better Collective deliver its highest ever adj. EBITDA of €37m despite a 2% dip in revenue to €94m thanks to “cost discipline”.
Showing the way: Søgaard said BC delivered on its “full-year guidance despite significant external headwinds. Brazil regulation, foreign exchange movements, and sports win margin volatility all impacted reported performance during the year. Navigating through those factors while maintaining high profitability demonstrates the resilience of our diversified business.”
While the regulatory transition in Brazil had a €3m impact on group revenue in Q4, with customer-friendly results hitting the topline by €5m, Better Collective pointed to a 6% rise in the value of deposits to €820m - a record high - as a strong indicator of the value of its database.
Looking ahead to 2026, Søgaard was bullish, describing prediction markets as “a natural extension of our core business”, pointing to growth of its AI tool Playbook and hailing the opportunities provided by the World Cup. The group expects organic revenue growth of 7-12% this year, with EBITDA growth, before special items, of 8-18%, or €110m-€120m.
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Results round-up: Cirsa, Codere Online, PENN Entertainment
Cirsa’s management pointed to the strength of its “diversified, omnichannel model” as the operator reported strong revenue and profit growth for 2025. FY revenue was up 8% YoY to €2.34bn with adj. EBITDA rising 7.8% to €753.5m and free operating cash flow up 17% before M&A activity. Q4 revenue of €616.4m was up 8.8% YoY, with adj. EBITDA up 8% to €200m.
Minimal prediction: Speaking to analysts, CEO Antonio Hostence revealed Cirsa is planning to launch its own prediction markets platform, starting in Spain, although he added “this is not going to be a big priority for us”.
Brazil in waiting: The group was continuing its wait-and-see approach on entering the regulated Brazil market, Hostence added, and any eventual move would be based on M&A. “I just read a few days ago that 51% of the Brazilian market is still offshore [and] we have no intention in the short term to approach that market,” he said. “In case we decide to go there, whenever everything is normalised and under control, we will go for an M&A.”
Codere Online hailed “the highest quarterly figure in the company’s history” as Q4 net gaming revenue hit a record high, primarily driven by a 31% YoY increase in Mexico. The operator reported Q4 NGR of €60.7m, up 15% YoY, while revenue rose 15% to €57.1m and adj. EBITDA shot up by over 250% to €6.7m.
Mexican levy: Despite the January increase in the statutory excise tax on gambling in Mexico from 30% to 50%, Codere was bullish about prospects for 2026. CFO Marcus Arildsson said the company had delivered “a significant uplift in adj. EBITDA alongside strong topline performance,” and guided for €235-245m in NGR and €15-20m in adj. EBITDA for 2026.
NGR in 2025 rose 6% YoY to €224m, while adj. EBITDA was up 37% to €13.8m, landing at the upper end of guidance. The company recorded a €1.8m net loss vs. €3.9m profits in 2024 and closed the year with €50m in cash and no debt.
PENN Entertainment’s decision to ditch the ESPN Bet brand in favour of its in-house brand theScore Bet looks to be paying early dividends with the operator hailing a “record interactive segment revenue” in Q4. Interactive revenue rose 52% YoY to $142m with sports betting revenue up 73% to $86m. PENN shifted to theScore Bet in December and said iCasino NGR rose 32% and OSB +102% during that month.
Obvious gambling: CEO Jay Snowden said the company was “encouraged by the trajectory” of its interactive business and told analysts that it was “obvious to anyone who’s ever been in the gambling industry” that prediction markets are a form of gambling.
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News shorts
The age range of French casino players is a lot more diverse than most people imagine, according to Maurice Shulman, a member of Groupe Partouche’s executive committee. Posting on LinkedIn, Shulman said: “Contrary to popular belief, the typical customer has no age. And the trend is clearly towards a younger clientele.” In 2025 Partouche “welcomed as many young adults as we did senior citizens”.
The trend was “not a coincidence” and was the result of a “long-term strategy to modernise our establishments”. “For over 10 years, we have been investing heavily in innovation and attracting an ever-wider and more diverse customer base” thanks to quality restaurants, poker tournaments and music and cultural events.
As shown by the data below, the age groups are evenly represented, based on a survey of 500,000 Partouche customers over the past 12 months.
Ontario-licensed operators recorded $9.5bn in stakes and $401.5m in GGR in January as online casino stakes increased 34% YoY to $8.1bn and 86% of the total, sports betting stakes came to $1.1bn and were down nearly 6%, poker stakes totalled $156m. The province had 1.3 million active player accounts during the month and recorded $800m in tax revenues in the past 12 months.
Calendar
Results: Mar 2 : Lottomatica, Mar 5 : Banijay Group, Mar 12: Gambling.com
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