France to study iCasino regulation in 2025
France to study iCasino regulation in 2025
French roundtable report, Betclic, France political bets, results roundup
Good morning, on Gaming & Co today:
Three and three: We report on this week’s gambling roundtable as France is set to establish three working groups to consult on iCasino regulation.
Betclic is on the up from Jan-Sept thanks to Euros and Paris Olypmics.
Political bettors win big with Trump victory… as France sets out to ban prediction markets.
Results round up: DraftKings, Penn Entertainment, Catena Media, Sportradar, Kambi
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France sets out iCasino consultation for 2025
The government's move means online casino regulation will be in 2026 at the earliest.
Consult and report: France is set to undertake a six-month consultation to assess whether the country will regulate online casino in 2025, thus drawing a line under the question of timing and whether the vertical could be regulated this year. The news follows the meeting of French gambling stakeholders that was organised by Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin this week and comes in the wake of its amendment to legalise online casino nearly three weeks ago.
Around 50 delegates from the country's casino, horse racing and online gambling sectors, along with MPs and representatives from mayoral associations and player protection groups, were present at the event on Wednesday.
It’s good to talk: Industry contacts have noted the government’s willingness to acknowledge and discuss the topic, something that did not occur under the previous administration.
Early steps: The online operator trade body AFJEL once again warned of the size of the illegal online casino market targeting the country, but its spokesperson Isabelle Djian also alluded to that idea when she told Les Echos she was pleased “a first step had been taken” and that “a form of denial” about the issue had come to an end.
Mirror mirror: Casinos de France President Grégory Rabuel and CdF VP Fabrice Paire reiterated their calls for only French casinos to be allowed to operate online via ‘digital mirrors’ that would reflect their physical offerings.
Paire again made the point that if the market was completely open it would mirror the current online sports betting markets, where three brands control 80% of the market.
“We would be on the starting line, but the contest would be rigged,” he said, and CdF “will not make the same mistake it made in 2010” when it allowed online companies that had been operating in the market to enter the regulated market with huge databases that enabled them to build unassailable market shares.
For and against
Gaming&Co understands that while CdF received strong support from the country’s mayors and local leaders, horse racing operators expressed their opposition to online casino regulation, while Française des Jeux, much to the surprise of those present in the wake of its acquisition of Kindred Group, expressed strong doubts about it, pointing to the addictive nature of the games.
Discretion guaranteed: On top of potential addiction issues, those two sectors might also be worried about how online casino could impact customers’ discretionary spend levels to the detriment of horse race betting or scratchcard products.
AFJEL said it would be willing to establish a compensation fund that would be distributed to the communes, but there are serious doubts as to the viability of such systems from both mayors and casinos.
BGC’s surprise attendance: The UK Betting and Gaming Council, accompanied by Bet365 and other major operators, was also present, again much to the surprise of some delegates.
It told the audience that online casino would not have a negative impact on the physical sector and would in fact help it grow by creating volume and awareness among players.
The gambling regulator ANJ noted that regulating the vertical would be “a major reform” and that it will be studying other countries’ online casino regulation model to assess their economic and public health impacts.
Three is the magic number: In the meantime, the government will set up three working groups, no further detail on what they will assess has been provided, to evaluate the topic as part of its six months consultation project.
The first three months will decide whether regulation should happen and the next three months will determine how regulation would be implemented.
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Betclic boosted by Euros and Olympics
French market leader continues to perform strongly.
You know it makes sense: Betclic reported strong nine-month results to the end of September as revenues shot up 44% to €1bn and François Riahi, CEO of Betclic parent company Banijay Entertainment, said he welcomed the fact that the government was open to “authorising online casino in France” and that it “made a lot of sense to regulate” the vertical.
Commenting on potential tax rises on the industry, Riahi said such talk “has been very difficult to accept” as “France is not an easy market because it has the highest level of tax on online sports betting in Europe”.
A tax rise would “actually be counterproductive” for both industry and the government’s tax revenues, he added, as it “would fuel the black market” and “move players from a very strongly regulated market environment to a non-regulated environment”.
The amendment to increase taxes was withdrawn recently and Riahi said Betclic would oppose it if it was reintroduced at a later date.
Banijay’s gaming Q3 revenues were up nearly 49% YoY on the back of a busy sports calendar and strong UX following “the successful release of a new version of the Betclic app”.
At group level revenues were up 9% to €3bn and adj. EBITDA was up 15.3% to €546m.
Political bettors win big with Trump victory…
… as France sets out to ban prediction markets.
Paying out on Trump: Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections means thousands of ‘prediction markets’ bettors are set to share an estimated $450m payout.
Watch the surge: Interest in prediction markets spiked in the final days of the election as major trading platforms like Robinhood entered the fray. Until then, much of the noise around US betting was made by US-based platform Kalshi and the crypto operator Polymarket.
Those two platforms are now preparing to distribute a combined $450m. Polymarket closed its bets as Trump clinched key electoral calls, while Kalshi remains open until the inauguration.
Leading bettor: A Paris-based Polymarket user known only by his first name of ‘Théo’ has been dubbed the “Polymarket whale”. Having wagered $40m, he could double his stake if, as looks likely, Trump wins the popular vote.
Just as I was getting going: It’s not known if Théo’s nationality had anything to do with it, but France’s gambling regulator ANJ said it would seek to ban Polymarket from taking French bets. Polymarket doesn’t specifically target France but in ANJ’s view the company offers gambling products.
Growth in Trump Media: Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group also rose 8% on election night.
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Results roundup: DraftKings, Penn Entertainment, Catena Media, Sportradar, Kambi
DraftKings’ 39% YoY rise in Q3 revenues to $1bn was 2% lower than expected by the markets but EBITDA losses were $11m ahead of forecasts at -$59m and MUPs increased 57% to 3.6 million per month, a company record. However the group lowered FY24 revenue guidance -5% and EBITDA -33% due to customer-friendly sports results at the start of Q4.
JMP said the “downward revisions will be the focus, but solid fundamentals are intact” and the bad results “do not take away the fact that 2025 revenue growth of 31% ($6.4bn at midpoint) is above consensus”.
DraftKings maintained FY25 revenue and EBITDA forecasts of $6.2bn-$6.6bn and $900m-$1bn respectively.
Average Revenue per MUP was down 10% to $103 in Q3 “due to lower ARPMUP for Jackpocket customers compared to customers of DraftKings’ existing product offerings prior to the acquisition”, the company said.
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ESPN Bet operator Penn Entertainment’s interactive revenues increased 24.6% to $244.6m but adj. EBITDA losses were up 78% to $91m as the company continues to focus on improving the ESPN Bet app.
It recently introduced a linking feature from betting accounts to ESPN TV account holders and CEO Jay Snowden said the “product improvements helped contribute to a higher parlay mix and hold” during Q3, while the brand’s launch in New York provides “greater scale as we leverage ESPN’s vast media reach for efficient customer acquisition”.
The Deutsche Bank team said the interactive loss guidance range was maintained at $460m-$510m with the YTD figure coming in at -$390m.
At group level revenues were flat at $1.6bn but adj. EBITDA was down 22% to $348m.
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Catena Media reported a 33% YoY drop in Q3 revenues to just under €11m due to a deteriorating sports betting performance and key media partnerships adversely affected by the introduction of Google’s site reputation abuse update in May. To address this, CEO Manuel Stan outlined a strategic shift towards organic growth and operational efficiencies to reduce dependency on new state launches in the US.
Product diversification: The group expanded the reach of Bonus.com with recent launches in Mexico and Brazil said positive developments are anticipated from Google search improvements and legalisation of OSB in Missouri and potentially in Alberta, Canada.
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Sportradar reported record Q3 revenues of €255m, a 27% YoY rise driven by strong customer spending, continued rollout of new products and key contributions from new partnerships such as the ATP deal.
Adj. EBITDA rose 30% to €66m and US revenues were up 46% to €51m and represented 20% of total group revenues.
The group added that it would carry out a share repurchase programme of c$20m and said FY24 revenue growth would reach at least 24% to €1bn and adj. EBITDA growth of at least 29% to €216m.
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Sportsbook solution provider Kambi’s Q3 revenues rose 2% to €43m but EBITDA fell 22% to €4.9m. Underlying growth was strong, with operator turnover up 14% YoY and adjusting for one-time fees revenue grew 16%, aided by a 10.4% trading margin.
On the + side: Kambi’s Odds Feed+ secured a “landmark partnership” with Hard Rock Digital, partnered with KTO in Brazil ahead of the country’s regulated launch in 2025 and extended its agreement with Rush Street Interactive in the US.
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