Don't believe the hype
Predictions threat/opportunity weighs on investors, Sportradar, Lottomatica &Co
Hello, on Gaming&Co today:
Hype and glory: no rebound for Flutter or DraftKings despite predictions hype
Ground control: Sportradar’s mission-critical role leads to major growth
Lottomatica’s integration of PlanetWin and all round performance pays off
Ingen reklamer: Denmark pushes for ad ban as Stake enters market
NIBS: KSA, Romania, UK
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Breaking news
Allwyn has just announced that it will not proceed with its acquisition of Novibet, following feedback from the Hellenic Competition Commission. Allwyn acquired a 51% stake in Novibet in Dec 2024 for €217m and that despite setting out “carefully considered proposals to the HCC”, said it would only move forward with the deal if it guaranteed value for shareholders.
Novibet has more than 1,000 employees and hubs in Malta, Greece and Brazil and is active in Brazil, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland and Mexico, among other markets.
No predictions rebound for Flutter or DraftKings
Shares have not recovered post-results over ongoing doubt/opportunity of predictions markets
A-flutter: Shares in the largest listed gambling group in the world have continued to falter days after Flutter’s CEO rejected concerns about prediction markets. Prices are yet to recover from a 10% dip in the aftermath of poorer-than-expected Q4 results last week and, with Flutter’s shares down 28% since the start of the year, investors are fearing that prediction operators will continue eating into traditional betting markets and that Flutter’s own entry into the space represents a snake eating its own tail.
Regulatory sidestep: Jackson dismissed any notion that OSB market share is being taken by prediction brands, including Flutter’s own FanDuel Predicts, which launched three months ago. But prediction markets have also sidestepped state regulations thanks to the clear backing they enjoy from the Trump administration. However, the sector continues to drive negative headlines, in part because of the warm support from the current White House.
There’s more: Recent Polymarket bets on whether the US would assassinate the Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were criticised for allowing wagers on human life, while an account won $500K betting on whether Trump would attack Iran in the hours before it launched an assault. The satirical outlet The Onion also joined in and a New York Times report has raised further concerns about insider trading.
Don’t panic: While investors appear to need further convincing, many analysts see Flutter’s business as robust enough to weather the storm. The global operator has numerous and highly diversified operations outside the US, as well as continued confidence in the overall strength of its sports betting offering.
You’re not alone: The recent sell-off in betting and gaming stocks also goes well beyond Flutter, with its biggest rival DraftKings also affected. Reflecting on a recent investor day, analysts at Macquarie said that despite DraftKings “continuing to frame prediction markets as a major opportunity with limited downside”, investors are still spooked.
Nevertheless, the Macquarie team said the current phase “is an opportune time to buy a best-in-class operator at a major discount to its historical valuation”. Flutter and DraftKings shares are down 50% and 29% respectively since the start of 2026.
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Sportradar’s “mission-critical” role drives 2025 growth
Data group talks up its key role in sports betting ecosystem after revenue and adj. EBITDA rise
Mission control: Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl said the company’s “position as a mission-critical partner deeply embedded in the global sports ecosystem” had enabled it to deliver strong growth in 2025, with revenues up 7% YoY to €1.29bn and adj. EBITDA up 33% to a record €297m. Koerl added that the group was seeing “strong conversion” towards in-play betting in the US, which tends to generate higher margins for operators.
Live and direct: “We see this trend (going towards) more than 70%”, while data from its MTS trading platform showed that live betting patterns on US sports were “significantly higher than 70% from the rest of the world”.
Asked about prediction markets, Koerl said firms like Kalshi “have a very good business, but the dominant business is sports betting. The beauty of sports betting is that you can really price everything because the bookmaker is the one who is holding the risk”.
Matching predictions: “On these predictive markets, you’re going to need to always match it with an individual. So that gives you less flexibility to accept many different betting types. But in principle, we welcome this. In principle, we think that’s a good additional business for us because they need content,” he added.
The group’s betting content and solutions unit generated the bulk of annual revenues at €1bn (+15% YoY), while content and technology services revenues rose 22% to €243m thanks to +24% growth in marketing and media services. In Q4, Sportradar’s revenues increased 20% to €369m and adj. EBITDA rose 48% to €89m.
FIFA integrity: Sportradar also announced that it had deepened its commercial relationship with Super Technologies, the parent company of Superbet, to enhance the operator’s presence across Europe and in Brazil. The data group has also extended its intelligence gathering and sports integrity contract with FIFA for another five years.
Lottomatica gains from organic growth in 2025
Online and retail performances and regulatory certainty contribute to strong 2025
Interplanetary: Strong performances from its online gaming and retail sports betting verticals, integration of PlanetWin assets and new online gaming concessions that provide “regulatory stability and clarity for the next nine years” enabled Lottomatica to record a 12% rise in FY25 revenues to €2.25bn and a 21% rise in adj. EBITDA €856m, while adj. net profits increased 45%to €369m during the 12-month period.
The group said it currently enjoys 31% share of Italy’s iGaming market and more than 40% of its sports retail segment. On the analyst call, CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi praised his teams and said net profits had doubled over the past four years and “three-quarters of the growth has come from organic growth and optimisation projects”.
The next 12 months will see the company consolidate its activities, secure renewal of a retail concession and focus on share buybacks, organic growth and, if appropriate, “targeted bolt-ons”, said CFO Laurence Van Lancker. For FY26, Lottomatica issued revenue guidance of €2.36-€2.46bn and adj. EBITDA guidance of €940-980m.
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Denmark pushes for ad ban as Stake enters market
Long-promised whistle-to-whistle ban presented to parliament
Promises made: Denmark is pushing through on its promise to introduce new restrictions on gambling ads, including a whistle-to-whistle ban for all sporting events. Tax minister Ane Halsboe-Jørgensen has introduced a package of reforms that include banning gambling marketing from some public areas.
Streaming services will be included in the planned prohibition, although most forms of gambling advertising will still be allowed at the actual games. Showing live odds, however, will not be permitted, even in-stadium.
Don’t look now: The proposals would also see gambling ads removed from many public places, including on public transport and in busy town centres. “With this bill, we are clearly saying that the consideration for people outweighs the consideration for gambling,” said Halsboe-Jørgensen.
Good timing
The ministry’s proposal also makes brief mention of paying closer attention to the availability of crypto gambling in Denmark, just days before one of the sector’s leading operators launched its locally-licensed operation.
Stake.dk went live last month, having acquired its way to a licence by purchasing MocinoPlay, which operated the site Vinder Casino. The operator is promising users an industry-leading experience, but will not offer gambling with cryptocurrencies via its Danish licence.
Stake has attracted criticism for its status as a focal point for offshore crypto-gambling and abandoned its regulated UK presence a year ago following a series of controversial advertising stunts, when its white label provider TGP Europe gave up its UK licence.
And finally: This week has also seen the Danish Gambling Authority publish detailed legal guidance on how to comply with its online casino and betting responsible gambling rules.
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News shorts
Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit has appointed Wiebe Ruttenberg as the latest member of its Board of Directors. Ruttenberg was recently Programme Director for Cyber Resilience Strategy at the European Central Bank and has held various positions at De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Ministry of Finance.
Dutch-licensed operators Tonybet and BetCity have also been warned for sending untargeted advertising messages to young adults aged 18-24, rather than to adults aged 24 or more, while Kansino was found to be running advertisements in mobile gaming apps, which is prohibited.
Romania’s crusading new gambling regulator says he has found “serious indications” of tax dodging by some licences operators. Suspicious patterns of winners raised concerns among regulators, he said. The operators in question have not been named.
The UK’s Advertising Standards Authority has warned that it will begin to punish game providers who do not include prominent loot box disclosure statements. The regulator pledged to begin investigations from May 26.
Calendar
Results: Mar 5 : Banijay Group, Entain, Mar 12: Gambling.com
Contact
Get in touch with Jake Pollard to find out more about Gaming&Co: jake@gamingandco.info