French bookmakers: overround and margin analysis
Propus Partners analyses .fr markets, War of words continues in Québec, News in brief &Co
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Analysis of French bookmakers’ overrounds and margins.
Québec iGaming coalition data, trade body renews call for regulation.
News in brief
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Analysis of football betting offers - UCL 28-29 Nov
French bookmakers' football betting offers are analysed by Propus Partners
Market analysis: Gaming&Co and Propus Partners will be publishing a series of studies on the European sports betting markets in the coming weeks and to launch this project the Propus Partners team has collected data on the markets offered by French bookmakers during the fifth round of the Champions League (28-29 Nov).
The data gives an overview of French bookmakers’ betting offers on high level football.
Key takeaways
There is a big difference between different operators within the French market in terms of margins.
Betsson, the new entrant to the market, is the most aggressive on margins, particularly in the 1X2 (match winner) markets.
Compared with other jurisdictions, margins in France are high, even on basic markets such as total goals. For Propus Partners, this is due to the regulations (and the 85% maximum pay out ratio) in force.
Operators with in-house technology (bwin, Betclic, Parions Sport, Winamax) offer the highest number of markets per match.
Only four operators offer an automated bet builders: Betclic, Pokerstars, Unibet and Winamax.
Overrounds and margins explained
Bookmakers use overrounds or expected hold margins to calculate their margins:
Overrounds are calculated by adding up the "implied probabilities" of all the selections in a market.
For example, a market of 1.909 against 1.909 in decimal odds would have an overround of : 100 / 1.909 + 100 / 1.909 = 104.76
The overround is a measure of the amount a bookmaker would have to take to hope to pay 100.
The margin is then calculated by 1 - 100/overround. For example: 1 - 100 / 104.76 = 0.0455 or 4.55% margin.
Margin comparison
The visual below shows the average overround applied to the match results, total goals and Asian Handicap markets, both pre-match and live, on matchday 5 of the Champions League (28-29 November).
Data was collected within two hours of kick-off for each match.
The most aggressive operator in this sample is Betsson, the latest entrant to the French market.
The 1X2 pre-match markets have the lowest average margin applied. This is not surprising since this market is the most visible and easiest to compare.
In the total goals market the lowest pre-match overround is at bwin with 106.5 and three operators are the most competitive in live betting with an overround of 108.0.
Over the whole sample (all operators and market types), an average overround of 110.7 is applied for pre-match and 114.6 for live betting.
The highest overround on an individual market is 122.0, and is achieved by three operators on total goals markets. This is a two-selection market, where the margin taken is most visible to customers.
Markets by event
The graph below shows the average number of markets available for each event in the sample.
Each bookmaker groups markets differently, so we have used a standardised approach for a fair comparison.
Good measure: Having the most markets is not necessarily the best option; the range of markets, their uniqueness and the way they are presented are often more important, but it is still an interesting measure of what is on offer to players.
Bookmakers with in-house platforms, multiple data providers and their own trading teams such as Betclic, bwin, Parions Sport or Winamax, generally offer more markets.
Winamax is the undisputed leader in terms of the number of markets available.
Two platforms supply seven of the 15 licensed French operators (Sportnco-GIG and BetConstruct), which means that there is a great uniformity of markets across the data.
Unique markets and bet builders
The French market has a number of operators with their own technology, trading and risk management teams. In theory, this allows them to differentiate themselves by controlling their own product:
Six operators (Betclic, Parions Sport, PMU, Pokerstars, Unibet and Winamax) offer what can be considered unique content to their customers.
This differentiation in offering is likely to aid their marketing messaging and retention.
There was only evidence of build-your-own bet builder products on four operators (Betclic, Pokerstars, Unibet, Winamax). This is comparatively low proportion within a mature European market.
While France has a relatively high number of operators using their own technology or having in-house trade/risk teams, there is still not a huge amount of real differentiation between the offerings of the different bookmakers.
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Loto-Québec rejects Coalition study… and its calls for regulation
Coalition of private operators continues to advocate regulation of the sector in Quebec.
A survey conducted by the Coalition québécoise du jeu en ligne (CQJL), the trade group of commercial operators advocating regulation of the sector in Québec, has revealed that out of 1,000 respondents, 73% of them bet on private/commercial sites and more than two-thirds are in favour of regulating the sector through a "licensing and tax regime".
Reminder: At present, only the provincial lottery Loto-Québec is licensed to offer online gaming and betting to Québécois players.
By the numbers: 73% of respondents said they play on private online casino and sports betting platforms and 72% of those who use Loto-Québec's Espace Jeux do so solely to buy lottery tickets.
More than two-thirds of participants were in favour of regulating private operators through a "tax and licence regime", and 56% were in favour of creating an independent regulatory body.
In response to the data revealed by the survey, Loto-Québec spokesman Renaud Dugas told Gaming News Canada: "Some members of the coalition formed to promote a new regulatory framework in Québec are violating the Criminal Code of Canada by illegally offering games to Québec residents, which raises serious doubts about their real intentions."
The CQJL members include Betway, Bet99, DraftKings, Flutter, Entain and Rush Street Interactive. All are active in Quebec and there are many more operators active in the market who are not members of the coalition.
Coalition spokeswoman Nathalie Bergeron said the study is an "important wake-up call" for the authorities and reinforces the "need to pay attention to what the coalition is proposing" in terms of regulation.
"We are giving the provincial government a true picture of reality. We have a monopoly in Québec right now (that) no longer works. The survey results clearly indicate that it is time to modernise the system and meet the needs of players," she said.
News in brief
Flutter Entertainment has confirmed that its shares will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange from 29 January and its Dublin listing will be cancelled on the same day.
Gaming Innovation Group has raised €75m in senior secure bonds which will be used to repay a €49m loan and fund its recent acquisition of affiliate group KaFe Rock.
The Gambling Regulators European Forum (GREF) has announced the creation of a new working group to combat money laundering and improve the exchange of information between members.
The group will focus on strengthening the integrity and credibility of the industry and is the fifth working group to be launched by GREF.
Christophe Vidal of the Autorité Nationale des Jeux and Rachel Bezzina of the Malta Gaming Authority will co-chair the group.
GREF recently established a partnership with the North America Gaming Regulators Association (NAGRA) to encourage information exchange on regulatory best practice.
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